Covid projections in India

 
Experts predicts 20 million COVID-19 Cases and 2.0 lakhs fatalities in India by close of this year -  ICMR Says Social Distancing can Reduce Spread by 62%.

Three months ago, no one knew that a virus called SARS-CoV-2 would bring humanity to a halt. The outbreak, which started in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, has now spread to almost all countries and infected more than seven lakh people in India within a span of just three months. The deadly contagious virus has turned into a global pandemic — impacting businesses, travel, sports and day to day life of billions of people around the world.

What’s the pattern of Virus spread?

According to the World Health Organisation, the rapidly spreading COVID-19 took approximately 67 days (March 7) to infect the first one lakh persons. For the coronavirus to attack another one lakh population, the virus took 12 days (March 19). The next lakh of people contracted the infection in just four days—crossing the three lakh mark on March 23. On March 25, the cases breached to more than 4 lakh. As of March 30, the number of confirmed cases have jumped to 7.25 lakhs across the globe. Mathematicians call such spikes as exponential rise!

Looking at the trend in India, the first novel coronavirus infection was reported on January 30. The cases increased to three by February 3. After this, no new cases were reported till March 1. On March 2, India reported two more positive cases — one each from Delhi and Hyderabad. By March 15, the total number of confirmed patients reached 107 and since then, the number of positive cases is continuously increasing.

Confirmed cases of coronavirus in India multiplied by 10 times in just 15 days between March 15 to 30. As of March 30, India has more than 1071 cases with 29 deaths.  Projection is that India will have 20 million covid 19 patients and 2.0 lakhs deaths by the close of this year.

The social distancing measures

To tackle the situation, Prime Narendra Modi, declared a 21-day lockdown till April 14 to break the chain of coronavirus transmission. Furthermore, in a nationwide address PM urged people to practice social distancing.

However, statistically speaking, where does India stand in terms of social distancing measures and other transmission-control measures? The latest study conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has projected that India can reduce the cases by 62 percent if social distancing and quarantines measures are effectively implemented adhered to. For the study, researchers analysed the reproductive numbers of the virus i.e., the rate at which the first person, who contracted coronavirus can infect other individuals.

The study hypothesized two scenarios - pessimist and optimistic. In the worst-case scenario (pessimist) an infected person can spread the virus to four and in the best-case scenario (optimistic) it could spread to just 1.5 people.

For the study researchers used mathematical modelling techniques to understand the spread of the corona virus and used data till late February, before India witnessed the second wave of the outbreak. The results were published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research.

 Another research, conducted by the COV-IND-19 Study Group has revealed that India would have witnessed nearly 3 lakh cases by mid-May 2020  if the spread of the virus is not contained. However, the experts claim that the number of cases may change if testing, stringent measures and restrictions are implemented. The analysis was done based on the coronavirus outbreak models of Hubei, China. The pattern helped to predict and make projections about its spread based on the public health intervention methods in India.  Actual covid 19 cases stood at just below a lakh as on Mid May 2020.

Moreover, the ICMR study also revealed that the screening measures like temperature check at airports were not sufficient to test for symptoms. It said that 46 per cent passengers may have been missed in screening at the airports, as many of those returnees may not have showcased the symptoms at the airport screening. Recent studies have shown that asymptomatic can be as infectious as the patient with symptoms. Therefore, there was a need to track post-travel symptoms among people.

The study revealed that the probability of an infected air traveller coming to India was only 0.209 per cent. Based on the density of foriegn visitors, the cities which may report the highest number of confirmed cases are Delhi (0.064 percent), followed by Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad , and Kochi.

At this rate, given the air transportation dynamics in the country, India stands 17th among the countries at the highest risk of importation of COVID-19 through air travel, says the study. ICMR study also warned that the community transfer of the virus may take 20 days to next few months to be visible.  But Kerala Government, health department has already confirmed community spread in some coastal areas of Thiruvananthapuram district.  

Taking a global view, India ranked at 57th positions in terms of preparedness of a pandemic, according to the Global Health Security (GHS) Index 2019. A total of 195 countries have been ranked in the GHS index on a scale of 0 to 100 based on preparedness of the healthcare sector to deal with the pandemic.

The ranking was based on indicators such as prevention, detection, reporting, rapid response, health system, compliance with international norms and risk environment.  Depending upon the strengthening of health care facilities and the possible successful breakthrough in covid vaccines, the projections may go wrong.  As of now the projections stand good.